With the UK, Germany and France keeping a leader position, the Nordics might overtake in 2013, according to Forrester. The forecast for 2008 total online European sales is 124.1 billion euro in 2008 up to 186.1 billion euro in 2013.

Forrester also pointed out to some key drivers to the European eCommerce, both for the demand and supply side:

Key drivers for the demand side:

- Widespread uptake of broadband in Europe

- Increasing numbers of internet users and tenure online

- European Net users are increasingly confident online

Key drivers for the supply side:

- Improving delivery options (in terms of cost and times)

- Gradual improvement in the site design

- Growing competition among online merchants

- Increasing promotion of online shopping

Europe: Growth market

This morning I went more indepth on EMOTA’s key figures. In 2007, the EMOTA members saw a 14% increase in distance selling (online and offline sales, including sales from big books, telephone, etc). Sales went up to 110.3 billion euro’s for Europe. Per capita, excluding Russia, European consumers spent € 186 per capita in 2007, compared to € 165 in 2006, a growth of 13%.

Impact financial crises uncertain

The impact of the financial crises is uncertain, but like Michel Lieffering, CEO of Conrad Electronic explained to me: every crises has a winner and maybe online will be the winner this time. It’s the ‘battle of the channels’. Recent research from the UK shows that consumers are changing online behaviour, doing more price comparison and doing more shopping online. Maybe it’s like Scott Silvemann of Shop.org said yesterday: we not immune for the financial crises, yet we are resilient.

Long tail is alive and kicking

Chris Anderson’s long tail is definitely alive and kicking in Europe. In Holland, a little over 7,000 webshops are registered at the Chambers of Commerce,  yet we as an association believe the actual number of webshops probably reaches close to 20,000. This is an European trend, having a distinguished impact on the market. Question of course is whether the financial crises is also the announcement of an upcoming shake-out, like we saw at the internet bubble. My prediction is that a shake out is inevitable.

Manufacturers are entering the online market

It has been great to see so many manufacturers attending the Summit in Amsterdam and of course this is for a reason. The manufacturers are entering the online retail arena and this will have impact on how the retail ballgame will be played in the future. In the US already 5% of consumers online sales are purchased at the webshops of manufacturers. And over 50% of consumers look for information at the manufacturers website before purchasing goods online.

Consumer protection is hot!

There is vast trend of consumer protection flowing over Europe. Consumer Authorities, national bodies that look after the interests of consumers, are popping up in most European countries. New legislation is being drawn up at the European commission level which will be translated into national legislation in the upcoming years. These new guidelines will have impact on the business of European retailers!

Harmonizing European markets

One of the top priorities of the European Commission is to harmonize the markets of 27 participating countries in the European Union to open up the market, to create an internal market without borders. I pointed out to the withdrawal period for returning goods various between 7 days in some countries to even some weeks in other countries. Some countries prohibit partly or full payment in advance. Harmonizing European markets is good for consumers and online retailers, as long as it is well balanced.

Competences are shared, both online and offline, Nijhof explained. Wehkamp takes care of website content, photos and marketing, logistics and return, payment and credit and customer call center. C&A selects the assortment, but based on experiences of online consumers. C&A is of responsible for its branding and offline promotion, which includes online marketing and even C&A TV-commercials, which include both brands.

On lessons learned Nijhof talked about the faster uptake of online campaigns in comparison to offline campaigns. Even though building assortment for online is different to offline, Wehkamp is able to tell C&A what the online fast movers are, which C&A takes into account when stocking the shelves. And most important for both parties: store and online campaigns are more complementary in revenue sales than previously thought.

Scott Silverman, executive director of co-organiser Shop.org and chairman of the first day, also showed staggering figures and predictions for the US market: 117 billion USD in 2007, 334 billion USD in 2012. But what are some of the US trends that are shaping US online retail?

Growth of the market

Scott talked about 5 trends that are shaping US online retail. He talked about the growth of the US market and pointed out to a 21% growth in 2007, 17% in 2008, 15.2% in 2009 and ultimately a 11.2% growth in 2012. By now the online penetration is significant in many categories: 8 retail categories like computers, books, dvd’s, consumer electronics, baby products show an online penetration of 20% or higher!

Impact of financial crises

On the impact of the financial crises on online retail, Scott’s comment was: the online market is not immune for the financial crises, but it is resilient.

Free shipping

Scott also talked about on old American tradition: free shipping to consumers! Amazon started this tradition back in 2004. Nowadays free shipping is offered to consumers by 8 out of 10 retailers and obviously, consumers love it. Research shows that consumers value free shipping as an unique selling point  and three of the top 8 favorite online retail promotions involve ‘paying less for shipping’.

Social media

Social media is going to change the online landscape, Scott pointed out. Monica Luechtefeld, vice president of 5 billion corporation Office Depot, first key note speaker, talked about the upcoming challenges of social media. Back in 1994 we said: ‘The internet will change everything’. Social media is now about to change the online market, even though nobody nows for sure who and with what technology will ultimately will become the dominant players and the new Google. Social media is about social networking, where ages 17-25 are the target for now. .  the past was about pull, the future will be about push. Social media will start at consumers, then small business and finally to corporate business. 

Privacy concerns

Luechtefeld also talked about privacy as one of the 6 US online retail trends. While 7 out of 10 consumers express concern about privacy, only 4 out of 10 bother to read the privacy statements, according to Luechtefeld… It is a privacy dilemma: on the one hand there are privacy concerns, on the other hand consumers are willing to provide various forms of information in exchange for something as modest a $50 – $100 sweepstake entry.