Shop.org on Facebook
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As we head out of 2008, we head into a year full of challenges and opportunities for e-commerce. Around the web we’ve seen various experts and consultancies compiling their own projections, such as Peter Kim’s Social Media Predictions Roundup, Jeremy Liew’s Consumer Internet Predictions and eMarketer’s Digital Marketing and Media Predictions. While these touch on e-commerce, none of them focus exclusively on this half a trillion dollar layer of the web.
For the prognosticators among us, what do you think 2009 holds for e-commerce? Please post a comment with your 2009 e-commerce prediction(s).
I’ll post a follow-up on the blog that compiles Top N predictions we collectively come up with.
Happy holidays to everyone, and hope you have easy and painless travel (and family gatherings) this season – see you in 2009!
I’ll paraphrase the experts:
“2009 will be the year we rediscover the appeal of ‘live intimacy’ in customer service” – Pete Blackshaw
“Retailers will investigate how to insert people and social connections into the buying process, illuminating and influencing the Black Hole Of Consideration” – Charlene Li
“With new connective technologies, shoppers will now be able to see reviews, experiences, and critiques from people they actually know and trust” – Jeremiah Owyang
Pretty feasible in my opinion – and I’ll add one of my own. The global economic crisis will provide momentum for e-commerce business units. In multi-channel retailers, politics are no longer an option and resources will be shifted to lower overhead/higher margin operations in order to survive. Those who shift will be rewarded with a robust support infrastructure once the economy returns to health.
This is not so much a prediction as much as an imperative, but companies must focus on creating value and stop worshiping growth. Growth is not a strategy unless you have some mechanism to profit from that growth and right now facebook, twitter, and youtube are growing like crazy but that growth comes with an enormous burn rate. If your business model is to grow so you can monetize primarily through advertising you are DOA.
Customer reviews are already an important research tool for online consumers, says Nielsen. So here’s my prediction: In 2009, the most successful online retailers will do what some are already doing, and move toward incorporating consumer-written product or retailer reviews.
The smarter retailers aren’t threatened by the thought, but instead see see the reviews as a cornerstone of building relationships with consumers, and vice-versa, as consumers increasingly trust stores that move in this direction.
Last year I made four predictions (http://budurl.com/tpku):
1) SOCIAL CONTENT IS GOING MULTI-CHANNEL
2) EXPANDING SOCIAL INTERACTIONS & CONTENT – “Micro UGC”
3) SOCIAL COMMERCE WILL DRIVE PRODUCT DISCOVERY
4) DECENTRALATION OF DATA & CONTENT
I think #1, 3 and 4 have dramatically taken off, and will continue to grow. #2 is slower to adopt.
This year I agree with Ann, we will see more adoptions of reviews and other forms of UGC, and also more rigorous use of UGC. Teaser alert: we have a study coming out next month that suggests reviews are the #1 factor for customers to buy products in a tough economy.
There will still be experimentation in smaller investment levels, even in mobile. Retailers will double-down on measurable online marketing (such as paid search) and that may cause a faster shift & focus to online marketing for multi-channel retailers. Jupiter study suggests 89% of CMOs are facing increased pressure to show ROI. When I was at Dell, we dramatically shifted budget to online in 2001 because of the predictability and measurability.
Finally, focus on customer service and experience will be critical to preserve customer base and grow out of this mess. As WOM will rule for products, such is the same for WOM for your business. Amazon and Zappos are doing great — they share great customer service in common. Measure your customer satisfaction — NetPromoter and Foresee will be more important.
I’ve decided to expand upon the idea that I started in the comment earlier “from growth to value as a strategy”
http://experiencecurve.com/archives/my-2009-prediction-on-social-media-and-beyond-the-flight-from-growth-to-value
K
Great input everyone. I also came across this year-end summary from E-commerce Guide that includes a few predictive nuggets
http://www.ecommerce-guide.com/news/trends/article.php/3793346
Will incorporate into the wrap-up.
I think 2009 people will start with smart shopping and buy products that they really need. With the going recession people may not go for the brands but look at the actual value of the products and buy products according to there need.